Rating your team's chances

parragirl · Posted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Rating your team's chances

By Matthew Johns | March 13, 2008 12:00am

THE word from the referees this year is that they will be getting tougher in the ruck area. If this is indeed the case, I expect a season similar to 2005, when speed and attacking mindsets dominated the competition.

Add to that the reduction in the interchange from 12 to 10 and it's fair to say that it's a year which will be dominated by the smaller, faster men. Let's take a glance at each side and look at the things that will shape their season.

TIGERS

They will be a side that will benefit greatly from the extra speed in the ruck and reduction in interchange. Tim Sheens is very clever and used his trial games to experiment. In the Roosters trial, Sheens played most of his stars on the bench and in the first 30 to 40 minutes had his side play a game with lots of sideways ball movement. Then, in a 20-minute window, on came the stars and all of a sudden the tactics totally changed. Gone was the sideways ball movement, replaced with the likes of Marshall, Hodgson, Farah and Morris playing directly over the advantage line and setting a lightning fast tempo in attack, which the Roosters struggled to contain. I'd like to think this is how the Tigers will play in 2008.

ROOSTERS
I saw some positive signs during the trials and I saw some worrying signs. Mitchell Pearce's first year in the top grade has served him well. He showed composure in the Tigers trial and the ability to lead the side around the park. The pack of forwards certainly will enjoy the extra muscle O'Meley and Mason will provide and they allow the likes of Nutley, Myles and Fitzgibbon to settle back to their more suited roles. Minichiello looked fantastic and was a handful with every touch, and Anasta again played with a confidence that, for a long stretch, had deserted him. The major concern I saw for the Roosters was that they appeared a little too one-paced through the middle third. When the Tigers and the Eels upped the ante, the Roosters lost control of the ruck and the game. In attack, a little too often, they made Anasta the focal point, which pushed the attack sideways and put pressure on Braith.

BRONCOS

I don't think the Broncos have ever entered a season with expectations as low as this season. For a club with such a culture of success it must be a very strange feeling. The positive is they still have a very, very solid playing roster. I think Peter Wallace will prove the buy of the season. Likewise, the signing of Ashton Simms has flown under the radar but his skill, size and mobility will prove a real asset. Mix that with the likes of Lockyer, Hodges, Hunt and further signings Joel Clinton, PJ Marsh and young Dave Taylor, and it's fair to say that you shouldn't write the Bronco's obituary just yet. Having key man Darren Lockyer coming off a knee reconstruction is a major concern. When a side's main attacking focal point is trying to find his way, his team's fortunes generally follow suit.

RAIDERS

Canberra have got a lot of things going for them. They are young, energetic, well coached and have a home ground teams hate going to. And having a lot of people tipping these boys for the wooden spoon will have Neil Henry building a nice siege mentality down there as well. A lot of their fortunes swing on the abilities of the young lion Todd Carney. 2008 represents a huge opportunity for Carney, with NSW searching for a suitable No7. A big season could see him elevated to the job. His halves partner Michael Dobson had some good moments last season but needs to be more consistent if the young Raiders are to make the eight.

Footnote: watch William Zillman this year. He's a freakish talent, ready to explode.

SHARKS

The Sharks should be a side who benefit from the extra speed and reduction in interchange this year. Certainly the Sharks' mobility in the back-row should help against bigger, heavier packs as the games go on. The three wise men of Kimmorley, Bird and Gallen hold the keys to a successful season. Bird established himself at the end of last season as one of the game's top players and Ricky Stuart will be hoping Bird can take it up another gear. If he can, it will take the Sharks a long, long way. But if the Sharks are going to be there in the mix at the end of the year, both Ben Ross and Brett Kimmorley need to recapture close to their best form. Depth is a major concern for Ricky. If the Sharks start using more than the top 25 players then their fortunes will slowly fade. But if the three wise men fire, who knows?

RABBITOHS

This squad of players has a lot going for it. In 2008 the sides who will be there at the finish will have big athletic forwards who can play lots of minutes and little men in the centre field who can create by playing fast, direct football. Souths have this. Led by Asotasi, Kidwell and Fa'alonga, the Bunnies will have plenty of defences retreating with Craig Wing and Isaac Luke supplying a mile of thrust on the back of power. Look for Luke to have a huge season. His star is about to rise very quickly. So the Rabbitohs have guaranteed power and thrust, what else do they need? Finesse! In the 7 jersey Wing is essentially a runner of the football. Souths really need someone alongside him and Luke to provide some passing creativity. For that reason John Sutton needs to fulfil his potential in 2008 and play quality football every week.

KNIGHTS

As an old Knights player, natural bias must be playing its part because when I look at the probable line-up that Newcastle will put on the field, I fail to see exactly how they will finish last. If the Knights can get through this campaign with their core top 20 players reasonably fit, they will exceed expectations. Depth, and depth in the key positions, is a primary concern. The Newcastle pack has rebuilt nicely and when Ben Cross returns in round three, he will assume the role of pack leader well. The back-row is a very good one, headed by Steve Simpson, alongside young star Cory Paterson and quality signing Chris Houston. But Danny Buderus, Jarrod Mullen and Kurt Gidley remain the spine of this team. Buderus and Gidley exude enough energy alone to make the Knights hard to beat.

COWBOYS

Any squad that contains Johnathan Thurston and Matt Bowen, two of the NRL's most dynamic attacking weapons, guarantees enormous respect before a ball is kicked and the Cowboys will again be at least top-four contenders. Luke O'Donnell's return from injury gives the Cowboys pack far more scope in attack and effectiveness in defence. Likewise the signing of Travis Burns is a good one - and one that will add balance, not detract from it. With Thurston, Bowen and Payne freewheeling in the midfield the last thing the Cowboys need is another ball player and whilst Burns can do this well, he sees himself as essentially a ball runner. His rugged edge defence will also be a huge benefit.

BULLDOGS

After watching the Dogs dismantle the Panthers in the second half of a pre-season trial, I'll warn sides to underestimate them at their peril. With all the dramas surrounding Canterbury's off-season, some expect this proud club to take a siesta in 2008. It ain't gonna happen! The depth of the Dogs' pack, particularly up front, has been affected by the loss of O'Meley and Mason. But any side containing a back-row of Sonny Bill Williams, Andrew Ryan and Reni Maitua will be difficult to beat. The big area where the Dogs needed to improve upon in recent campaigns has been in the halves. The loss of Brent Sherwin had everyone pointing to a perceived lack of personnel in that position and writing off their chances. However, under the tutelage of Andrew Johns, I saw massive improvement in Ben Roberts and also Daniel Holdsworth during the trials. On top of that the Dogs have two young halves in waiting, in Aaron Groom and Ben Barba.

PANTHERS

A lot of people have selected the Panthers for the wooden spoon again in 2008 but I think these boys will be anything but easybeats. The Penrith squad contains a great mix. They have a big, strong pack of forwards who, granted, will be tested by the reduction in interchange, but at the same time do their fair share of steamrolling. Petero Civoniceva brings experience, consistency and leadership, Adam Woolnough will prove a great buy and a back-row of Trent Waterhouse, Frank Pritchard and Tony Puletua is close to the best in the NRL. The Panthers have some dynamic young outside backs to complement their pack. Brad Tighe has impressed through the trials and Michael Jennings is so good a prospect that by the year's end he could be an international. He's a super player. The big question mark surrounding the Panthers is whether Matt Elliott can manufacture a halves combination to pull this team's abilities together and make it work.

EELS

Parramatta are a huge chance and if speed and attacking ability is the thing most desired in 2008, then Parra deserve their billing as the Storm's greatest threat. Parramatta contain the mix that all coaches crave; experienced players of quality and explosive youngsters of abundance. The production line of great young players will just keep coming for Parramatta in 2008 with rookies such as Weller Hauraki giving Michael Hagan depth others will envy. Parra's outside backs are the best the club has had since the glory days of the early 1980s. The power and size of Eric Grothe and Ben Smith, mixed with the innovation and brilliance of Krisnan Inu and Jarryd Hayne. Hayne, for mine, is a phenomenon. The pack is quality as well, with 80-minute men such as Nathan Hindmarsh complementing the mega-talented Feleti Mateo. Everything is pointing towards an enormous season if this side can knuckle down and find discipline. By discipline I mean on the field, but I would be negligent if I didn't say off the paddock as well.

DRAGONS

By his own admission Nathan Brown enters this year under heavy pressure. It's going to be interesting how Brown approaches the challenge. He has some great young talent at his disposal and a lot of speed and energy in his squad. What he does in the halves will be pivotal to his side's chances. In Jamie Soward he has a polished general, but who will partner him? We'll keep an eye on twins John and Maurice Kennedy. These brothers are absolute excitement machines who I believe could give the Dragons massive attacking thrust in the middle of the park. I'd love to see Nathan Brown inject them into the squad. They can play 6 or 7 and both would be a handful coming off the bench to play dummy half as well.

TITANS

I tip the Gold Coast to be big movers in 2008. They are very well equipped to handle the changes that will take place in the game this year. Firstly, they have a mobile and athletic forward pack that contains individuals who can play out the 80 minutes easily, such as Luke Bailey and Anthony Laffranchi. Laffranchi, in my opinion, is close to the most effective forward in the competition. He is mobile, smart and a terrific defender and can easily move up front if needed. On the back of this the Titans have a stack of attack-minded little men who will cause opposition forwards enormous problems in the centre field. Players such as Mat Rogers, Preston Campbell and Nathan Friend will enjoy the faster tempo this year, as will their two main men, Scott Prince and Shannon Walker.

SEA EAGLES

Will the old saying that you need to lose one to win one apply to Manly? Hell, it worked for Melbourne, so why not? Unfortunately for Manly they also lost a big player as well. Michael Monaghan became very much the main focal point of the Sea Eagles' attack in the back half of the season and his departure leaves a creative hole which is accentuated by the fact that Jamie Lyon is expected again to play in the halves. This puts a lot of pressure on Matt Orford, who will be heavily depended upon week in, week out, to get the Manly side home. The signing of Josh Perry will be a terrific one, not just for Manly, but for Josh himself. He'll give Manly a lot of explosiveness up front. Manly are super fit and well disciplined. They will be tough to beat and could go all the way if the Orford, Lyon and Matt Ballin (at hooker) combination can create enough opportunity.

WARRIORS

The Warriors have always carried the reputation of being big on explosiveness and low on endurance. Whether this still applies is open for conjecture. However, most sides do still adopt a "wear them down'' mentality when taking on the big New Zealanders. The Warriors have a lot going for them. They have big, strong and experienced forwards with fast, powerful outside backs. Their physical presence makes them a real challenge to play against. The halves combination remains a concern. When the big games came around last September, Grant Rovelli and Michael Witt couldn't elevate their team and I thought the Warrriors looked, at times, very disorganised.
Ivan Cleary will look for big improvements in his halves this year.

STORM

The Storm enter this competition red hot favourites to be the first side to go back-to-back in a decade. But this campaign represents a huge challenge for the premiers, who were forced to lose a lot of power and experience in their squad. Gone are Ben Cross, Clint Newton, Matt King, Garret Crossman and James Aubusson. The loss of these players puts the Storm in a similar position to a lot of clubs, in that injuries will really test their depth. But in the all-important nine, seven, six and one positions they are stronger than anyone - and these players have plenty of tomorrows left as well. The key period for Melbourne will be State of Origin, when their depth will be really tested and coach Craig Bellamy is away with the Blues.

http://www.news.com.au/dailyteleg.../0,26799,23369223-5016307,00.html

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